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Re: What is Ed Miliband up to? – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure I agree, but it's interesting that Sopel is looking for a reason to attack Starmer. https://x.com/jonsopel/status/2046525234866430345 I have listened to Sir Olly Robbins evidence for last hour and forty minutes and am seeing the very best of the civil service. I am left incredulous that the decision was made… -
Re: No true Scotsman – politicalbetting.com
My thinking was that Starmer individually would bring, albeit selectively, a certain gamekeeper turned poacher approach to the blob, an ability to know how systems and structures work and use it, where he so desired to edge the blob towards change. After all, he had done that with the mechanics of the Labour party itself.… -
Re: The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting
I've got not time for vaccine refusers and I would shed no tears if they all got COVID and died but it is simply a personal choice to take on that individual risk of refusing a vaccine. The issue has always been overwhelming the NHS which was a collective risk for the nation. The vaccine programme has eliminated that… -
Re: Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way? – politicalbetting.com
Rampant inflation in any sector is concerning, so yes I clearly meant house price inflation but that is rampant inflation. Rampant house price inflation is no better than rampant CPI inflation. The fact that CPI excluded house prices just makes CPI dodgy data. Yes I 100% agree that the problem was worse in the 00s than the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB plan to give free bus travel to those of 25 and younger
FPT I know I tipped Raab, but now might be the time to start laying him. Housing minister Dominic Raab today faced mounting pressure as the UK statistics watchdog demanded he publish evidence for a controversial claim blaming surging house prices on immigrants. The UK Statistics Authority is calling for the model he used… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast
I know I tipped Raab, but now might be the time to start laying him. Housing minister Dominic Raab today faced mounting pressure as the UK statistics watchdog demanded he publish evidence for a controversial claim blaming surging house prices on immigrants. The UK Statistics Authority is calling for the model he used to… -
Re: Undefined discussion subject.
It is worth reading the judgment that is linked to in the BBC report. It is an excellent piece of work and contains some of the clearest summaries of election law that I have read. The extent of the findings are truly shocking. Eric Pickles was criticised when he sent Commissioners into Tower Hamlets for being heavy… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley on why Jeremy Corbyn should not automatically
I disagree, Keiran. MPs don't have to follow a party whip if they don't want to, and the analogy with the House of Commons having to have confidence in a prime minister (and a government, and indeed each minister taken individually) is false. The Labour leader is elected by the party membership and should only be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead
Suppose May and Leadsom are chosen by Tory MPs to go to the membership for the final vote, with May being the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs. A likely scenario. Suppose the Tory membership, 60%+leavers choose Leadsom and her plan to for a WTO model with a big economic impact but full control of immigration. Unlikely but… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Trump has got at least a 50% chance of winning the nomi
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef. I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday. Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.… -
Re: Yesterday, February 28, 2025, a date which will live in infamy – politicalbetting.com
I think that their strategy has been valid. They have tried to make use of their stockpiles before they are depleted and manpower when it is still relevant. Hence the pretty much full out attacks of the last year. And they have not been without success in that they have ground the Ukrainians down and stretched their… -
Re: Could 2023 see Sunak’s Tories edging back in the polls? – politicalbetting.com
My kind of Republican: wrong-headed but (intentionally) funny: Politico.com - Meet the House GOP’s newly crowned comedy king From the borderline to the unpredictable to the absolutely random, everyone in the House GOP has a story about Tim Burchett. Every class has its clown, and in the House GOP no one has earned that… -
Re: The future’s bad, the future’s orange – politicalbetting.com
The Democrats have lost the White House. But they have the better track record in recent decades with the presidency. They do well in the House. They do OK in the Senate, given it’s massively disproportional when it comes to smaller states. The Democratic platform has often been the more compelling. It wasn’t this week. -
Re: Undefined discussion subject.
I agree, though I fear that if councils had been allowed to build new housing they would have built terrible slums like they did in the 60s. Housing policy has probably been the greatest post-war failure of any policy area - amongst some stiff competition. You had a combination of disastrous brutalist architectural… -
Re: The search for Starmer's replacement - politicalbetting.com
It's not murder, it's war. Iran has vowed to attack any ship in the Straits of Hormuz and has been fighting a proxy war for years across the whole region, including sponsoring terrorist attacks of Hezbollah and Hamas, proxies in Yemen, and indiscrimately targetting ships in the Red Sea and around the Horn of Africa. So you… -
Re: The Barnet Bypass: Can the Tories hold on again? – politicalbetting.com
Next Lords by-election is next week to replace Lord Rotherwick. https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/lords-information-office/2022/notice-with-candidates-list-rotherwick.pdf Candidature statements Ashcombe, L.Having been a regular attender of the ACP meetings, my longstanding interest in politics has been… -
Re: Should we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com
It's all three. Appropriate encouragement to improve environmental performance has not been done in any meaningful way in the Owner Occupied sector, which is the least energy efficient of all of them - Social Rent, Private Rent, and Owner Occupied. Since the average house is up in value by £40-50k in a little over 2 years… -
Re: Boris Johnson’s destruction of the key shibboleth of the Conservative Party – politicalbetting.com
Some rewriting of history going on. Thatcher reduced direct taxes but increased indirect taxes - despite the latter being regressive. She encouraged people to set up businesses and gave them tax advantages for doing so. She encouraged house ownership and high prices for those houses. It was a Tory government which tripled… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contrib
"The Associated Press has said its Twitter account has been hacked, after the posting of a bogus post about explosions at the White House. The news agency's account was suspended and it has advised all tweets should be ignored until further notice. The false message said: "Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposi
I'm in general very sympathetic to Corbyn's left-wing policies, but there's something completely absurdist about the way in which he overeggs things. So, for example, today he has been talking about buying houses to house the homeless. Sounds great, a well overdue step to replace council housing lost over many decades. But…