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Re: What do the “Turnip Taliban” think of their MP now? – politicalbetting.com
Appreciate the reply. I'll go a little way with that, but this is not really specialist, except perhaps for the wrinkles of the price cap - they have been running Public Information films on most of this for 40 years. And every house sale by law has an EPC certificate with estimates of energy and bills for about 15 years… -
Re: Don’t panic – politicalbetting.com
If the losing candidate does not concede (almost certain with Trump), or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges) (Again almost certain), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College… -
Re: Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Its the age old issue. Starmer and Labour have had no scrutiny as yet. And that's fine, that's the electoral cycle. No-one expects them to put out their manifesto now. The change in the polling has almost all been down to the screw ups and hypocrisy from the government. By the next election Starmer may have built a superb… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s plan to enshrine the Brexit date in law looks set to fa
House prices have almost nothing to do with the supply and demand for houses - therefore building more houses (although necessary) won't make any difference. House prices are driven by money supply inflation, since when money is lent for mortgages by commercial banks it is new money that increases the money supply and… -
Re: Should we start describing Kamala as the favourite for the White House Race? – politicalbetting.com
Sullivan has dragged his heels on enabling the needed military aid throughout. Tanks were needed in large numbers for the lightning manoeuvre warfare of the late 2022 counter attack but that debate dragged on. The 2023 counter offensive was with hindsight doomed to fail, because the US blocked effective air support to stop… -
Re: Nigel Farage is now the favourite to be the next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com
IMV: Assad and the Syrian army was a paper tiger after about 2013. It relied on Hezbollah/Iran manpower and Russian airpower to keep the territory it still held (not the whole country). Also, they had deals with some local groups in other areas of the country, whereby the government were only in nominal control. There may… -
Re: Punters and Fox News say Harris won the debate – politicalbetting.com
I think the deterrence of the "Market Rate" criteria (places like Germany already use 'Average Rent' in their regulation) is in stopping LLs being outrageous in their demands. An appeal from the T will make it complicated, so it is about incentivising reasonable behaviour from the start. There have been nationwide surveys… -
Re: The LDs use Lee Anderson’s words against him – politicalbetting.com
The reason for obscenely high house prices is, in the long run, insufficient supply to meet demand. After that you have factors bearing on demand, the most important of which is household formation (smaller households), and then immigration. In the short-run, it has been the long period of zero interest rates, now coming… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidder
Whatever happens to Labour, they are more unelectable now than they have ever been in their history, and that's quite something when you consider that has mostly been their default status. Corbyn will not go, unless McDonnell and Watson beg him to, and I'm not sure even then. He is pathologically stubborn to the point of… -
Re: Might Southend West not be a total certainty for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
When I was a teen (1970/80s) it was generally acknowledged even in my peer group of the time, that the Republican prisoners were smarter than the Loyalist ones. Looking back with the advantage of age, it seems to me that a lot of politically motivated violence the world over seems to stop when the talking starts.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – t
@OldKingCole continung The NHS was an excellent concept in its time, but it became overtaken by 'management' from the 1970s and its running needs to be returned to the professional surgeons and medical staff. Whether with advancing medical and surgical solutions it can continue to be free for all is a moot point. Perhaps… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow we might get an indication if Corbynmania is all m
The problem is that whilst Corbyn's agenda is coherent, it's also unelectable. Voters will consider it and still be laughing as they vote for a.n.other party in the ballot box. You seem to be staking a great deal on the fact that the party will alter Corbyn's agenda. How much has Corbyn altered his agenda over the thirty… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Gov
Farages offer is laughable If he had offered a pact BEFORE the election with the weaker party standing down in seats he could have helped Dave perhaps scrape an undeserved second term as a unelected PM As it stands hes going to offer his three or four MPs to Daves 250 to 260.AFTER the GE? Milibands weekend just gets better… -
Re: Could Labour hold Gorton and Denton? – politicalbetting.com
“Westminster” is the same as the “Elysee Palace”, the “Kremlin” or the “White House” as a synonym for our Government. It has been a symbol of British power for centuries. -
Re: A big polling night sees setbacks for the Tories and Johnson – politicalbetting.com
Texas 6th CD Special Election for US House May 1 - polls close 7pm CDT = 1am BST Texas Tribune - Special election to replace U.S. Rep. Ron Wright remains highly competitive in final hours, as Donald Trump looms large Nearly two-dozen candidates are vying to fill the late congressman's seat, and the former president is… -
Re: Polling matters – politicalbetting.com
Background for journalists about Rishi Sunak and Winchester College (part 2/2) 5. All of the boys attend classes in the same classrooms, but it's where they "live" that counts. The 70 "scholars" sleep, dine, and study in the original 14th century buildings. These include "Hall", a room that would make many people think of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at
That's house prices in the South. The train to London would be £300 a month.... Not that long ago, that £1600 would have been half. Literally. We are talking just a few years back.... That is what the politicians can't understand - it is about *disposable* incomes. Headline inflation is non existent. Housing inflation has… -
Re: Will the Coronation overshadow likely Tory losses in the locals? – politicalbetting.com
You are the NRA here. The problem isn't too much construction/too much gun control - however much you want to reshape that to be the question. The problem is too many shootings/too many not having a home to call their own. The problem is that our development system is so broken only a handful of firms are able to do much… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency p
To Cyclefree FPT: People who want to buy a £2m house generally want to buy it because of the location, size, design, etc. I suspect not many people able to buy a £2m house will be put off by a £3k per year tax (much like how people still buy houses in higher stamp duty brackets). And if some are, then so what? House prices… -
Re: Let’s talk about Coldplay – politicalbetting.com
Sadly the White House has called someone and the video has been disabled