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Re: Even Reform don’t want toxic Lee Anderson – politicalbetting.com
Yeah, another excuse for a philosophy thought experiment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus It won't be the same, according to the Continued Identity Theory: "This solution (proposed by Kate, Ernest et al.) sees an object as staying the same as long as it continuously exists under the same identity, and it is… -
Re: Remember that a CON-LD swing smaller than in C&A in 1990 led to Maggie going within a month – politi
The point being that the planning system has had bugger all to do with the failure to build more houses. Yes the population has grown but the failure to build houses to accommodate them has been due to strategic failures by government combined with a developer controlled system that allows them to land bank to maintain and… -
Re: The by-election battle for Jo Cox’s old seat shouldn’t be as challenging for LAB as Hartlepool – pol
Or back to houses? "For the past four weeks, Peter Mandelson has been retreading old footsteps. Canvassing for the Labour Party around Hartlepool, the north-east coastal town he represented as an MP from 1992-2004, he encountered many former voters. “I was struck going back on to all the old council estates where I used to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yv
Eastbourne is lovely - has been since my Lobster Day bar a wet week. It regularly gets toppish sunshine records. http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/local/eastbourne-is-top-of-league-for-sunshine-1-3438806The town’s status as the sunniest place in the UK was reaffirmed this week when a weather expert announced… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vote LEAVE is naive if it thinks it can black-ball Farage f
On house prices, it's an article of faith that the root of the problem is that housing is in very short supply whilst demand from population growth, immigration and household fragmentation has grown rapidly. But there is one very big flaw in that argument which Albert Edwards of Société Générale (who is admittedly a bit of… -
Re: All right stop, collaborate and listen, ICE is back with my brand new invention
It has been a fundamental facet of British Law for generations. It is a vital safety net that ensures free safe and proper justice. That various politicians are so glibly unaware of this, or chose to ignore it, or seek to abuse it, demeans them and the law. The right wing media joyous at the arrest of Mandelson last night,… -
Re: How Bad Is the French Vaccine Roll Out? – politicalbetting.com
Back in Stockton on Tees, there has been continuous house building across the borough for 20 years. Green field, brown field, housing estate bulldoze and regenerate, the lot. So its really funny that the government insisted the borough wasn't building sufficient houses and thus allowed developers to build absolutely… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vot
It's a pretty small sample, I wouldn't rush to the bookies just on this alone. Worth noting that for most of the decreases for the last 2 governments have been during a time when the opposition has been effectively unelectable. The Tories between 79 and 97, and Labour between 97 and 2010 saw falls in their vote share but… -
Re: Keir has a net approval lead over Boris – but where it matters least – politicalbetting.com
Compleatly off topic, but this seems a very big story (to me) that has not been mentioned on here. The problems and possible collapse of the Chines house builder 'EverGrand' This is a big company 200,000 direct employees 4,000,000 subcontractors, and at least £120 Billion in borrowing. They make money as you might expect,… -
Re: The Life of Nigel – politicalbetting.com
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Re: A date with destiny, a place in history? – politicalbetting.com
Yes - Babbington. The dual carriageways were full of flying pickets on that day. On Lee Anderson, I'd say that Ben Bradley is safer. So if Anderson survives, so will Bradley imo. I really can't call Ashfield as I can't call the Ashfield Independents. Despite all the slings and arrows, they increased their seats at the last… -
Re: Mid Beds – Make your predictions – politicalbetting.com
The author uses a methodology that identifies "a variable that is exogenous to birth rates and strongly correlated with county-level house prices", which they argue is "refusal rates for major development projects as a source of exogenous variation in house prices". There is then some maths that is then rather over my… -
Re: On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting
Sorry @not_on_fire, I've been out for a couple of hours. Good to see you and @Alistair with your usual goodwill :) On your point, no, I am not going to say it favours Trump and I wouldn't. I'll repeat it again as I have ad nauseam, I have not bet money, apart from with @kinabalu, on this race because I have no idea what… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survi
Regarding PVI, I thought it would also be interesting to look at a whole region. If we look at the former county of Avon the situation in 1992 was as follows: Northavon C+43 (Lab in 3rd) Woodspring C+32 (Lab in 3rd) Weston C+29 (Lab in 3rd) Wansdyke C+13 Bristol W - C+10 (Lab in 3rd) Kingswood - L+4 Bristol NW - L+8… -
Re: If you’re betting on Raab as next PM/Con leader look away now – politicalbetting.com
Thanks for posting @Nigelb I've read the proposals. Though I would have favoured an increase in income tax (combined with higher rates for over 65s) I have to hand it to them - this has been thought through and presented rather well as far as I can see. I'm particularly pleased that they have extended the 1.25% NI levy to… -
Re: An update on Donald 'no more wars' Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel peace prize
The intellectual power house that he has for AG says he is going to face the full wrath of the US justice system in the US in a US court for crimes according to US law. and they have already (Maduro and his wife) appeared on indictment in New York. In any kind of legal system based upon the rule of law the first question… -
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
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Re: The Republicans now a 69% betting chance for Senate control – politicalbetting.com
Hmmmm. A few days back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-63446845 'An East Yorkshire village hotel has been told it cannot house asylum seekers after a council secured an interim High Court injunction. On Sunday, East Riding of Yorkshire Council confirmed it had gone to the High Court to stop Humber View Hotel… -
Re: Meanwhile in America – politicalbetting.com
@thestudyofwar.bsky.social 2/ The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort aims to achieve several of Putin’s original war aims through a negotiated settlement, as Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield. @cerianbond.bsky.social The number one target for this cognitive warfare is the White House,… -
Re: What shall we do with the drunken sailor? If you’re Danny Kruger, join them – politicalbetting.com
Darlington still has Binns / House of Fraser. It has it because someone spent £1m to buy the building and then worked miracles to keep them there. Sadly I can't say I've helped as I've not been in there in 9 months but then again apart from trips to opticians, the good bakery and evenings out I've not been in town for 9…
