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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with
Darling repeatedly hammered Salmond with "What if you're wrong?" last time and plays the "I'm a loyal Scot who wants the best for it regardless of outcome" card the whole time. He made a rod for his own back there and does need a Plan B given it. Sorry, he is arguing for the status quo, so why does he need a plan B?… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mismatch between what Scottish people think their gover
So how do we know that this poll was tactical, rather than a dispassionate attempt to uncover the views of the electorate? Well, apart from the obvious point that Lord Ashcroft is Lord Ashcroft, we need look no further than this part of his commentary on the results - "I also found many voters deeply sceptical about the… -
Re: The Wednesday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com
The press reviews Guido quotes might have been unduly influenced by coordinated Tory cheering. That said, I thought Starmer missed a trick by not asking for a list of new hospitals. He also missed that Boris said there would be 48 rather than 40. Starmer does tend to stick rigidly to his pre-written questions which might… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A four horse race is now emerging in France following the rise
I share your concern re: First MTR. They have made all sorts of ludicrous promises about increasing capacity and numbers of trains and I see no evidence these have been properly challenged by any experts. I'm a regular SWT traveller but, unlike yourself I suspect, I am usually "against the flow" so going from Waterloo to… -
Re: Why the war on wokeism won’t work for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Just on number 3, beefing up digital investigations. Aiui one problem is that any incident can generate hundreds of hours of cctv evidence, most of which turns out to be of little evidential use (say, because the suspect turned left instead of right, but cctv from the right turn has to be checked). A more subtle problem is… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved
Yes, I know of what you speak, ruefully, and it's probably mitigated but not eliminated by a retread candidacy of the previous MP. I've been quite rightly teased to death here about my pre-election optimism (though maybe it's time to move on from that, said he wistfully), but in my patch the hard fact is that 31% of the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbynus interruptus would destroy Tory hubris about 2020 i
Fenster- what can I say? I get you. I adore pubs. I live in Italy. A bottle of supermarket peroni in Italy costs me 30p, and a pint in the local pub (OK it is Italy, but it is very lovely, authentic, Irish pub) a half mile, uphill walk costs me £5. Guess what, I walk through hail, snow, sweeping wind storms just to pay… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 30% that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 or
On the question of "yeah, Danny Baker was an idiot, but he said sorry and did they really have to sack him?" He'd have been on firmer ground had he not pissed off every BBC manager who'd taken a chance on him over the last decades. It *always* ends with him leaving and calling the person who'd paid his wages for the last X… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Methinks that Dave has made a mistake on the TV debates
‘The way forward is to treat each event as a passing accident of horror’ Laissez-faire approaches like these have led us to the predicament we are in. These acts are neither passing nor accidental; they are part of one long atrocity continuum, compounded by mainstream society’s cowardice and unwillingness to champion… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no dea
Again, he is reducing it to semantics and a process issue. Here is Chris Williamson's previous apology from two months ago when he retweeted a petition in support of antisemite Gilad Atzmon. Atzmon lost a libel action with the Chairman of the Campaign Against Antisemitism when he claimed that antisemitic incidents had been… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership el
Just had an email from Harriet asking me to become a Supporter (or even a member) so that I can vote on both leadership elections. Also a choice on who to back at this stage by signing up to individual candidates. Re: last night's debate. Thought both Cooper and Burnham suffered from not answering the questions and instead… -
Re: The great Trump problem for the Republicans – politicalbetting.com
Well, clearly the rest of the UK would go on being the UK. (And if Scotland goes, presumably NI goes too.) Now as an Englishman of Anglo-Scots descent, I have no particular problem with that. I like Scotland, but also like Ireland, and I don't have to be in a political union with it to go on liking it. It's not going to be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW EMERGENCY PB / POLLING MATTERS PODCAST: Bye Bye Boris and
Yesterday was utter chaos and it seems today that it is possible to paint a new picture on the politics of all this. The cabinet is now much more centrist and better for the loss of David Davis (who I do like) and Boris (who I do not) as Davis who seems to have given up on the process long ago, with only 4 hours of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A New Ireland?
The solution to both this and the rest of the seemingly intractable problems with Brexit is simple and all-but-trivial: we move to the EEA, at least initially. It was designed as a half-way house between being outside the EU and being inside it, it's straightforward, and it's proven. The Leavers insist it is "Brexit in… -
Re: Known unknowns – politicalbetting.com
Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way. I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The international hot potato that is internet betting
Interesting point about RNG's, I played around with them many years ago and like many people at the time gave up on them. Surprising as it may seem, the numbers are not really random and are generated by a basic algorithm which unfortunately had the bad habit of regenerating the same series. The trick to using them was to… -
Re: On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels – politicalbetting.com
I disagree. They say "Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market." There is no way… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The People Will Speak
I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table. Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate. Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is… -
Re: In North Shropshire the betting’s getting tighter – politicalbetting.com
I think that's being a little unfair. He won't have the latest up-to-the minute information, and the data source for the cases will be somewhat disconnected from hospitalisation data - someone will probably have to combine them. And if he said: "No-one is in hospital," when someone was taken in six hours ago and he had not… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The war without end
AIUI the situation at EC was very different after the takeover than it was before, esp. in regards to payments to the ROSCOs and the work NR had been doing on the line. What do you think of all the privatised TOCs who are returning, in total, returned over £800 million to the taxpayer from operations ? Why are they not…