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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not takin
Quite so: On January 16th 2019, the House voted by 325 to 306 against a motion of no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government. Yet the day before, a huge chunk of those 325 (including the DUP) had voted against the Government’s central policy and purpose, namely the Withdrawal Agreement, when that went down to its historic… -
Re: The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com
538 had a pretty good 2016. Like other forecasters they gave appropriate weight to state polling which turned out to be systemically wrong in the mid-Western states considered to be Clinton's firewall. Yet unlike other forecasters which had written off Trump they had him with a 1 in 3 chance just a couple of days prior to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eye
I had spent four hours writing a thread on a subject I had been heavily briefed about a few days earlier and wanted to go to bed. -
Re: Is Sunak going to make it to the election – politicalbetting.com
. The simple and basic thing that needs to be changed is that where we handed out £107m PPE contracts without tender to a company set up the day before by a Tory with no track record in PPE - and then no usable PPE was delivered - the money should be clawed back. We just about managed to get enough PPE. But we sourced a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19
Afternoon all :) A few random thoughts this Wednesday lunch hour - what is it about young men and extreme opinions? Sabisky looks about 16 and he's said some daft things - well, I know I did when I was 16. It must be wonderful to have such certainty about things and to know you are right about it all. A few decades on and… -
Re: How Johnson did in 2021 according to YouGov’s “Well/Badly” ratings – politicalbetting.com
This made me laugh. Actually, I do genuinely think Boris believes in something - small state, liberty, freedom of the individual, that sort of thing. I just don't think he's very good at - or indeed even tries to - join the dots between these 'principles' (to stretch a definition) with pulling the levers which will produce… -
Re: Is this the best way to deal with two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com
"I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump now the clear favourite on Betfair to win the Republi
There's a lot of misunderstanding about petitions and debates. The all-party Backbench Business Committee has a certain amount of time to allocate, which is much in demand. They consider how many MPs are interested in attending and speaking (very important - it'd be embarrassing to allocate time and then find not enough… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal
email from Leave.EU From Leave.EU chairman Arron Banks: This is UKIP's darkest hour and there is no Gary Oldman to pull the irons out of the fire. The party has written its name into British history and whatever its current travails this can never be erased. Without Nigel Farage & UKIP there would never have been a… -
Re: In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A – politicalbettin
It is more difficult, but it is absolutely possible. I would need to give you a multi-hour powerpoint lecture to explain some of it. Liverpool already have probabilistic models that they can show players given their position vs particular defensive setups, what is the optimal action / area to run to...and then when they… -
Re: Trump’s desperate attempt to bully the Georgia Secretary of State shows the lengths he’ll go to hang
Yes, if they get arsey that will be the response. He used to run a picture framing business. In the last lockdown he cleared out their warehouse with the intention to liquidate the stock. When I went for a tour in October progress on that front had been slow. As well as the 6-bed former bank manager's house we are buying… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nicky Morgan’s academy plan could boost her leadership hope
Nicky Morgan.. Erm, No. The least able and most housetrained minister and that is against some strong competition. She also has the charisma of a rock. This is the minister that said:we need to promote tolerance of beliefs and ideas even if we strongly disapprove of them So like ISIS then ? and presided over this sort of… -
Re: Undefined discussion subject.
On the question of a second independence referendum she has attempted to ride two horses — promising wearied mainstream Scotland that there’s nothing lurking in the offing while delivering a stage wink to the clamouring faithful. And so the voters, in the round, made their choice. You’ll be First Minister, Nicola, but no… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the
True but in the past inflation would have been rising rapidly for a while too. Now it is well below target. Our economy has changed fairly fundamentally. Firstly, in work benefits means that the marginal benefits of leaving underemployment and seeking full time employment are much less than they were in the past. We have… -
Re: Call Me. Dave. – politicalbetting.com
Yes, I too can only do Exchange and Spreads now. It has benefits, though, in that I used to spend a big chunk of every day on betting (on lots of things) and no longer doing so is quite liberating. I used to grind out a regular income but if expressed as £/hour it would have been less than minimum wage. It became sort of a… -
Re: Why the early results on the night might be deceptive – politicalbetting.com
If that actually happened then Sir Keir will surely have to resign: If you have been involved in a motoring accident, the law requires you to stop at the scene and exchange correct personal details with any person who has reasonable grounds to request them. If details are not exchanged you must report to the police as soon… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Dave’s big speech begins – Rumour has it the third defec
What would the 40% threshold be by now if it had been indexed since labour stopped indexing it? And what would it be in 2020 assuming starting from that number and adding 2-3% a year? My guess is around £50K if not higher so...meh... And subsidising house prices is a colossally stupid and harmful idea. Unless and until… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CO
I live in Staffordshire Moorlands. Twenty years ago a safe Labour seat. Although complicated by boundary changes it went Tory in 2010. The Conservative majority nearly doubled to 10,000 in 2015. Public services have been and are being cut. The mines have long closed. Local light industry is expanding..New private houses… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day when when the virus totally dominates the front pa
I don’t know, I quite enjoy reading hysterical death porn. “ Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate, spends his book Narrative Economics exploring how narratives like these, often false, develop and the real consequences they have. Heavy users of news, such as financial markets*, are most susceptible, he says, and, sure… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What is going on with the EU
> @AndyJS said: > > @state_go_away said: > > Also bet365 have brexit party at 5/4 to get under 29.5 seats wheras betfair have them strong odds on to get less than 30 (ie same bet conditions) > > Brexit Party was almost 10/1 to get 25-30% a few hours ago. Seemed like a value bet. Down to 6/1 now. This bet has been boosted!…