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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn v Eagle will decide whether LAB continues to be a pa
I don't normally follow Twitter (another thing Cameron got right), but Mensch's feed has been funny. The last time we saw political repositioning so fast was Nick's transfer from electable Blairism to unelectable Corbynism. 27 minutes ago: I'm a Tory #partyofgovernment :) -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For those who didn’t see it the Lord Ashcroft interview on
FPT speaking of Marigolds or the lack of themFather of 26 gets new five-bedroom house and compensation after previous home deemed 'too small' Peter Rolfe, who has fathered 26 children by 15 different women, says he is baffled by the fuss and insists: 'I'm not living in a mansion'.… -
Re: Why the Tory party is becoming more like the Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com
Betting Post F1: could be entirely wrong, but I think this is a two horse title race and the 3.8 or so on Ferrari on Betfair Exchange is well worth considering, especially as China may well suit the Prancing Horse rather more. On a similar note, I've backed Hamilton to win each way at 9.5 (Ladbrokes boosted). He's often… -
Re: Senatus Populusque – Previewing November’s other elections – politicalbetting.com
Also, I think there are nearly 800k people per House seat in California, but less than 600k for Wyoming's single seat. Because the House has been frozen at 438 members for at least a century (I think) it has slowly become less proportional as the population continues to grow and move away from rural States. -
Re: Live coverage from the Your Party conference – politicalbetting.com
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI. FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News. His slippery non denial hasn't… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence moti
Yes, very good again. What I am not entirely sure I get is what the imputed rent is a measure of. Is it the income benefit I get from being in my house or is it what I should expect in capital appreciation? I suppose using the share analogy should I be looking at the dividend yield or the capital appreciation? If I apply… -
Re: Could the World Cup cost Labour the Makerfield by-election? – politicalbetting.com
'Donald Trump has been booed at a basketball match in New York as he became the first sitting US president to attend the NBA Finals. The catcalls came after frustrated ticketholders waited for hours in lines that stretched more than two blocks outside Madison Square Garden on Monday due to the intense security restrictions… -
Re: Oh, Angie, don’t you weep – politicalbetting.com
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Re: Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Er, I may have been a Conservative member and voter in the past, but I think my criticism of the party on here has been vociferous. Not so from most of the Labour supporters on here, many of whom would have been happy to have the man who has been banned from their party on grounds of anti-Semitism made PM. Excuses are made… -
Re: Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs – politicalbetting.com
Just stopping in (despite promising myself post US election there would be less pb.com) to say I really enjoyed the thread header from Casino_Royale previously. As a general rule - votes must have consequences. Brexit I think has frayed that social compact but ultimately it has been respected. The resentment at the Brexit… -
Re: The Tory housing crisis – politicalbetting.com
The insect collapse really is noticeable sadly. I am not sure it is a widespread or accepted idea as yet but I am firmly of the opinion that it dates to the replacement of lead in petrol with benzene and MTBE. Back in 2000 when there was a rapid decline in House Sparrow populations in the UK one of the leading experts on… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more
ZIRP When you have a credit boom - like the massive one 1998-2008 - you get inflated house prices and the banks holding trillions of dollars worth of mortgage assets founded on those inflated house prices. When the bust comes - which it always does every time the banks create these massive boom-bust cycles - those mortgage… -
Re: Sunak’s still getting better ratings than his boss – politicalbetting.com
FPT, why is democracy now being questioned? Global productivity has declined in the West. What growth has been delivered has been captured by the 1%. This is even more the case in the UK, which since 2010 has fallen increasingly behind the growth vanguard, albeit masked by house price inflation which has kept a certain… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa shock for Hillary Clinton as the state’s most accurate
@Yorkcity I think Philip may be right so I am starting again. The UK has a tendency to higher levels of private debt because of our housing market. A large share of the debt is mortgage debt and well secured. You are right that inflation is currently very low but real wages have grown faster than debt over the last year.… -
Re: Good news for Farage/bad news for Badenoch, it looks like Suella Braverman won't be defecting
I liked this, but with the proviso that if you want to adopt the Singapore model then that comes with 85% of the population being housed in the Singaporean equivalent of council housing. I’m not sure the system works without state control of the housing market at a deep level. Oh, and top state employees have their pay… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back
The FT has another article this morning on the theme of bustling booming big-bang Britain: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72ae473c-3401-11e3-af0f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2hg2tgYDY Sample extracts: "Business investment and exports are likely to take over from housing and consumption as the driving force of economic recovery next… -
Re: It feels like a tipping point has been reached with Biden – politicalbetting.com
And they both exclude house prices. Include housing and inflation this century has been well above what people pretend it is. But if you've paid off your mortgage and have no housing costs then CPI is pretty accurate. -
Re: Sleazy does it – politicalbetting.com
It’s not irrelevant. The last weeks drama was about Starmer allegedly lying which had been proven wrong . We all know Mandelson shouldn’t have been appointed but this latest Privileges Committee is laughable . The media are fed up because their narrative has bitten the dust . I think Starmer should go this year but they’re… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Obama’s “back of the queue” response on a US trade deal is
The Tories really do look to be tearing themselves apart. Normally, this would be immensely enjoyable. But given Corbyn Labour's unelectability it's really going to harm the country. This has been a poor government and it's clear it's not going to get any better. We'll all end up paying a price, whatever the referendum… -
Re: Will the Tories ever get over Kwarteng’s budget? – politicalbetting.com
Bingo. You've nailed it completely. Essentially Britain votes by housing. Renters as a class tend to vote Labour. Owned outright tend to vote Tory. Owned with a mortgage, are the swing voters, who in recent years have voted Tory but in Blair's time voted Labour. In much of the country renting has become more common, but in…
