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Re: This week’s local council by-election bet: Cranleigh East – politicalbetting.com
Brave and the right thing to do is my opinion. And the sooner it happens, the sooner that public sector pay rises will be affordable. If pay in the private sector doesn't rise then public sector pay will need to continue to be deflated too as it has been for a decade. If private sector pay is minimum wage jobs that are… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Patched with virtue. Britain’s historical legacy and how black
Your solution when Catholics and Protestants had been killing each other in their hundreds within living memory would have been to focus on it more. What actually happened was that people's focus shifted, toward making the most of the new opportunities that the 18th century offered. The vestiges that still exist can be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vot
Stephen Barclay on the Coffee House Blog - Labour just don’t get it – the NHS is about patients not process "Labour’s Parliamentary Question does not challenge whether the emails are true. Nor does it dispute that the emails could have been released if the correct process had been followed. There is a clear public interest… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insigh
Keir Starmer QC? No, no idea (in fairness some of that may be in property assets). Labour is accused of 'vile hypocrisy' for tax raid on buy-to-let landlords despite a quarter of their front bench owning second homes Emily Thornberry owns three properties in her multimillion-pound portfolio Keir Starmer owns a £1.75million… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first BBC debate
I agree, it’s made it messy for pollsters. However has it really helped in seats Torys already hold because is there much brexit there for them to squeeze, and voters can now identify Tory and BREX as same thing of this pact. And it clearly is a pact there was dialogue before farage decision. Because in a lot of those Lib… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least ComRes didn’t bring Nelson Mandela into its controver
I think you've got this the wrong way around. In the small and mid-cap space, secondary broking has never been profitable. Simply, a £100m company which turned over once a year, at 10bps is £100,000 of commission income across the whole finance community - and that includes all costs, not just research. Coverage of small… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?
I don't think the pound will depreciate that much more. I suspect pretty much all of the implications of no deal are already priced in. The days of the BOE raising rates to protect the currency are also long gone. The response to the falling pound after the referendum was to actually cut rates. I've seen some comments… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s autumn statement is the first big Treasury event since
They're looking into them as part of the same thing. The East-west rail project has been about for yonks, and they're working on the western end atm. The problem with the old Varsity Line is between Bedford and Cambridge, where there are various obstructions on the line, including some radio telescopes. Coincidentally this… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon di
I have never said otherwise. What I object to is the use of a childkiller as some kind of symbol of a system that has gone wrong. Philpott was known about many years before he killed his kids. In fact, the Sun even reported on him being outraged at being denied a bigger house in 2007:… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ladbrokes 3/1 on a deal being agreed looks like a value be
I think that is overstating it a bit Robert. Over the last 9 years we have reduced government borrowing per year by well in excess of £100bn. That in itself is equivalent to a significantly higher savings rate overall. Earnings are being underestimated, hence the bumper January, so we are saving more than it appears. The… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer
You have to wonder if the primary was worth the resources just to prove a rather minor point if the response was well below 10% turnout If that wasn’t costly enough, all the postage has been first class, not second. The mailings alone must have cost at least £100,000, before any expenditure related to counting the votes.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposi
Zac needs to show is right behind the living wage, and the getting of the lowest paid out of the income tax net. He needs to be making the case that he and his Govt. are helping the poorest in London. And yes, he also needs to be very happy that London is the destination of choice for the Uber-rich. Proud that the top 1%… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – t
Hopefully not. Some of us are really worried. My wife I have to constantly calm down such is her worry. Probably a very small snapshot at why woman are more inclined to no. The worry, in my Wife's case is tough to see as i try tell her either way, as a couple we'll find a way forward. Oh, and before anyone says it's… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember: Next PB gathering: Friday May 2nd starting at 6.3
Interesting that someone is trying to play dirty tricks on UKIP members rather beyond the normal party bickering. "Hi all A former member has been circulating an anonymous letter trying to frighten UKIP members and candidates into resigning with some blood-curdling tales about impending legal actions and the threat of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives win a by-election whilst in government fo
Now that I have calmed down a bit about how lamentably poorly Labour did in the Eden* by-election a minor observation on the Lib Dems. In 2010 the Lib Dems were very notable in not losing a single deposit, anywhere in the country. In 2015 it is likely that they will lose most of the deposits in constituencies where they… -
Re: This trend look very worrying for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Starmer seems to be trying to piss off quite a few people and shouldn’t assume that the anti Tory feeling is rock solid . The key to getting elected is not to give open goals to the Tories and not to alienate voters. The last week has been a series of own goals . From the voting debacle and now this housing policy . This… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s reported admiration for Trump won’t look smart if Bi
The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points. At… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cracking New Statesman piece by Matthew Engel on betting &
I think the price of booze on tap compared with booze in supermarkets has been a bigger factor. I'm very sad about the decline of pubs. I spent so much time in pubs and clubs as a kid, making lots of friends and really enjoying myself - a proper rugby boy. Drunk in the night and running it off in the morning. Over… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotia
I don't see how Parliament enforces a softer Brexit, particularly with the Leader of the Opposition not pushing for one. Parliament would have to replace the current PM, but I don't think that a soft-Brexit PM would have a greater confidence of the House than the present PM. When a deal has been negotiated it will be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the ga
The monarch will invite whoever Theresa May advises her to invite. There is a fourth way: the PM can die in office. Also the second way doesn't necessarily remove the Government if it can change something and then win a confidence motion within 14 calendar days having lost the first one. From a popcorn eater's point of…