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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other side of the table. How the EU is shaping up to appro
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Re: Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester – politicalbetting.com
They are also a bit shit. ...Although the weaknesses of the BTG were the most evident, similar issues have bedevilled other Russian branches, most notably the VKS. Ukrainian assessments concluded that given limited flight hours and the practice of training being delivered in units, the VKS entered the conflict with fewer… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
The Guardian has already conceded defeat, James. And who is to argue it doesn't have the authority to negotiate surrender on behalf of the left? Here is the evidence: Burying the 1980s is not a straight- forward business, not in Britain where that decade occupies a similar space to that of the 1960s in the US: the period… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead o
As a CityAM leader piece said today: Back in November 2017, Corbyn warned the City directly, saying in a viral video: “you’re right, we are a threat”. Tellingly, his ire was aimed at Morgan Stanley, which had just made the same comparison of a Labour government to Brexit as Citigroup has. Two months before, his shadow… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the po
The secretary of state commissioned legal advice last week on the plausibility and prospect of success of a judicial review. On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who
By "us" I was specifically referring to left of centre voters who are switching from the Lib Dems to Labour. Unless you are claiming that those voters will ultimately not vote Labour because the Mail keeps telling us that Ed M is "weird" then I am not sure of the relevance. There are still significant numbers of voters who… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin
Whips surrender over plan to stop no deal Ministers have been warned that they will be unable to defeat a cross-party move to rule out a no-deal Brexit in the Commons next week. Senior government sources said they had all but given up trying to stop a crucial amendment to the government’s motion being passed on Tuesday.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile away from UKIP runners declare themselves in 3 p
Thoughts on Labour from a totally unsympathetic observer (and no pretence that these are surprising, original or scientifically tested either): Labour had four legs to its stool: - Scots - ethnic minorities - Guardianista - WWC Labour should pick a new leader most likely to maximise these. The Scots are gone in FPTP… -
Re: Americans have issues – politicalbetting.com
No. She was part of a team looking after the strategy for the overall Halifax / HBOS mortgage book of many billions at a time where it was becoming clear there were difficulties, after having had economics roles in the BoE. She was commuting from Leeds and employed in a head office site in Halifax (there were also Head… -
Re: Never Again – politicalbetting.com
If you're going to make a judgement in such a utilitarian and numerical way then you have to do it right and not with baseless assumptions. My wife was one of your 67 million people, but she actually preferred life under lockdown. Before lockdown she was quite isolated at home with mobility problems, unable to participate… -
Re: Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.
One consolation of heading home is being able to bet on Betfair and Ladbrokes again, neither being possible in Europe. Meanwhile I am in the old part of the Saar, which has a pleasant old town feel on a grey day, despite 75% of the buildings apparently having been destroyed by wartime bombing and then the US Infantry… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?
Devolution is having a bad crisis, at the very least in Wales. The extra layer of govt has been nothing but a hinderance. Pursuing the same contracts as England to get bumped down, testing seems worse (why abandon that 5k target if going well?), reporting of deaths so late in N Wales there’s an investigation, and the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now lo
I've had a quick look at the past 4 elections. If we'd voted by region as Electoral College votes, we'd have had: 2019: Con 356, Lab 217, SNP 59, DUP 18 votes. Con win 2017: Con 302, Lab 271, SNP 59, DUP 18. No winner; vote goes "to the house" and voted on by State Delegations. Con have 5, Lab have 5, SNP have 1, DUP have… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour continues to lose the economy blame game: EdM needs
Chris Bryant has done none of the following, which is why his speech has been such a dog's dinner. 1) Identify and specify a problem well. 2) Work out potential solutions. 3) Work out the advantages and disadvantages of each solution. 4) Decide on a solution (or none, if the disadvantages are too large) 5) Sell not just… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s “Brexit goes ahead if LAB won snap election” arouses
Not that long ago a man I knew slightly was imprisoned for the murder of his wife on evidence not much more substantial following a really quite nasty personal vendetta waged by a particular police officer (who had botched the original investigation in several really quite important ways). The evidence was essentially (1)… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As schools close down for an indefinite period it looks as tho
I've read her 'sorry' statement to the House, basically because I was directed to it after writing her, as my MP, saying how badly I thought thew Windrush people had been treated, To my mind the statement is much, much more than a simple "sorry'; there's evidence of a new broom at the Home Office, alt least on this. The… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?
Labour was born as a movement of the industrial working class. The clue is in the name. But this class does not exist anymore and most of the battles that Labour fought on its behalf have been won. The first thing Labour needs to do is accept that the party as was can never be again and that the British people have moved… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by
A compelling conservative argument for refusing to confirm Kavanaugh: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/why-i-wouldnt-confirm-brett-kavanaugh/571936/ The Brett Kavanaugh who showed up to Thursday’s hearing is a man I have never met, whom I have never even caught a glimpse of in 20 years of knowing the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics a
I see my earlier picked up a couple of comments. Blair's outstanding success was to convince millions of disillusioned Conservative voters the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left. Against a divided and exhausted Conservative Party, the miracle is the Tories got as many as 165 seats -… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour hubris equals Tory hope
Here's an ironic thing -2, actually. 1. Leadsom would have been better than Theresa - we can deduce this from the fact that anyone would have been better than Theresa; 2. Leadsom's comment about TMay not being a parent was absolutely spot on - not in the sense in which it was taken at the time, that TMay wouldn't care…
