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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to wa
Not sure. I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No. At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go
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Re: Snap YouGov poll has just 19%saying it’s wrong for BJ to resign – politicalbetting.com
Alastair Campbell's favourite footnote (page 12) We note that Mr Johnson has recently undertaken to supply the Covid public inquiry with a large number of his personal WhatsApp messages. This contrasts with his highly restrictive release of such messages to us. If it transpires from examination of the WhatsApp messages… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow needs to take inspiration from Arsene Wenger’s exit fro
Brexit in name only The waiting is over. Theresa May has finally chosen a side on Brexit, nearly two years after the referendum. It has not — yet — been set out explicitly. Indeed Mrs May’s language at this week’s prime minister’s questions stressed compromise and balance on the subject. However her choice is increasingly… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Th
Whatever the merits of Johnson's speech (I haven't read it) I cannot for the life of me believe that Tories seriously think Theresa May is leadership material. Forget all the 'nasty party' background noise or that she has the charisma of one of the vultures from the Disney Jungle Book cartoon this is a minister who has a)… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How To End Illegal Immigration
My relative is extremely sensitive - breaking away from his awful home, he built up a successful professional career, then was sacked after a spell of depression and has been gradually recovering after years of deep despair. Offering to do things for him usually runs into a distressed and/or angry reaction. I know it seems… -
Re: Reform: Tribunus plebis – politicalbetting.com
The claims were reported by more than the Mail and he has admitted inappropriate behaviour. He resigned before he could be properly investigated, ‘ Inappropriate but consensual relations between Cox and female staff in the department he headed were an “open secret,” O’Keefe said. Although behaviour at the office was… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin
The point is that pro-renationalisation people scream about East Coast, and ignore the other franchises that return money to the taxpayer. It is more than a handful: look at 2.1 in: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/14497/rail-finance-statistical-release-2013-14.pdf And again, the vast majority of public… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early front pages look good for Dave
Another Richard Quite right. Email has become tyrannical - and hugely wasteful. The studies you refer to show it takes 30 seconds just to scan each mail and see if it is relevant to oneself. Most aren't, and others have simply perished or been dealt with by the time we get to them. Given the volume of mail these days, many… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON MPs using the Trump visit to oust Bercow have lost the
Anyone else think there's a decent chance Trump goes from Stalin to Mr Bean over the next four years? (Apologies to Vince Cable) At some point he will want something the fiscal conservatives in Congress don't and there will be open warfare on Twitter. The whole operation has been amateur hour from day one - if they can't… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived
If (Spartan) the Tory party were to split, and Rees-Mogg's (already formidable) organisation inside the PCP were to become its own party, at least that would win the UKIP vote back from Corbyn :-) That's even if it's hard to envisage in that scenario how any set of parties could form a majority in the Commons, or to think… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Margaret That
Morning all :) Vaguely on topic, "there will always be the proles" as someone said in 1984. Some of the language used by those talking about the "disaffected working class" reminds me of the language of 1984 used by the Outer Party members looking at the rest of Oceania. I've argued since 23/6/16 the decision to LEAVE the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 5 years ago bullish punters pushed the betting to
Wrong on both counts. This Government has done more than any other in the last 40 years to make the super rich pay their share, taking steps to crack down on tax avoidance (e.g. the introduction of the GAAR and the work done with Swiss authorities to identify and bring to account tax avoiders), introducing new property… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a p
England's improvement has been inversely proportional to the number of swear words I've been hurling at the TV for the last hour or so. -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s positi
Sorry, I was being boneheaded and thinking they still had 60+ seats. So yes, I think they will likely hold on to 40. I think Clegg has had his kicking. The tuition fees was a debacle (Lib Dems will have to learn that coalitions are now a very real possibility and hostage-to-fortune popular policies are no longer allowed),… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Question
Thanks Richard. Trump has had a few half-decent polls in the last 48 hours, including a -5 in a 'National' from Fox. When this has happened before it's invariably been followed by a few strong polls for Biden, so no need for anybody to get excited, but I expect the next price move will be a slight shortening of the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s inadequate response to Covid-19 will doom his presiden
Not quite correct. It is already the case in the costas here - simply being extended to the whole country. The change in the last 24 hours has been dramatic. The mass movement of thousands of Madrilenos to the costas has triggered this. There is huge anger at them where I live and I suspect this could turn on the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the
Hardly unexpected - we know Labour is as divided as the Conservatives but the Conservative backbenchers have been "bought off" by it appears contradictory messages from May. As for "united and disciplined" inasmuch as they have realised it's better to hang together than hang separately, that's true but all the last 24… -
Re: The front pages on the Liar King’s desperate attempt to survive – politicalbetting.com
There are benefits to both, but people are looking at someone ignoring the 'rules' (in fact he is stubbornly sticking to a written rule and forcing them to do it the hard way) and declaring a different rule would solve the issue. But what if they ignored that? We have rules to bring down PMs or Tory leaders. They just have… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big moves in the referendum betting – follow the changes LI
This is why it is completely inappropriate to hold a vote on the UK's future for the next 40 years in a week of national mourning. No one has yet explained to me why the voter registration deadline can be extended for two days when it was interrupted for an hour, when the vote itself does not get a delay at all when it has…
