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Re: Ladbrokes make the Tories odds on favourites to take Hartlepool in the first Westminster by-election
I turned from being a young Eurosceptic to a Europhile at law school when I thought that the EU could act as a check and balance to the almost unfettered power (now the Lords and the Monarchy are little more than cyphers) of the majority party in the Commons. But being in the EU has not prevented the rise of… -
Re: Remember the May 2017 locals when TMay was totally dominant and conquering all before her – politica
In the UK the Astrazeneca and other vaccines are operating under an emergency authorisation aren't they? Are they operating under an emergency authorisation in the EU? Or have they been fully authorised? -
Re: Aside from his vaccine approval and voting bounce the weekend’s other Johnson-Starmer ratings look t
More warheads per missile whilst on patrol basically. Even with the fusing and navigation upgrades from about 10 years ago (which more than doubled the effective threat of Trident against hard targets) there is obviously the concern that some potential targets might have effective ABM systems and so you want to increase… -
Re: Silencing Us – politicalbetting.com
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Re: New polling has voters narrowly opposed to the Clapham vigil but significantly more supporting than
I think 38% is at the higher end, the average of the past month is around 36% and the direction of travel is downwards at the moment. All up against a government that has served 11 years. It's not terrible but probably not enough to stop a Tory majority let alone bring about a Labour government. But Starmer does probably… -
Re: The Met has got this very wrong and something has to change to make women feel the streets are safe
I often evaluate this sort of question by posing a different situation which resembles the problem under discussion. Contrast the reaction to "women at risk from men" to "white men at risk from black men" Both cases deal with low probability events. Both use the same generalization of groups. Both have low level… -
Re: One Woman’s Perspective – politicalbetting.com
Is that 1 in a million chance? Clearly the EU are Terry Pratchett fans as of course he rightly said that million to one chances occur 9 times out of 10. -
Re: You might need a brave heart for this Scottish bet – politicalbetting.com
You're just rabbiting. You said it's a delusion of the left that people can be uplifted via the downgrading of others. But it's clearly not a delusion (of left or right) because exploiters do exactly that. Did slave owners not uplift themselves via the downgrading of their slaves? Of course they did. -
Re: Here We Go (Again) – politicalbetting.com
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Re: The Covid race: vaccination vs lockdown easing. It’s not over yet – politicalbetting.com
He seems to be claiming that it would only be fair if they’d been quarantined in their youth for a disease that didn’t yet exist. It’s about as rational and grounded in reality as most of his other variations on the theme of “I DON’T WANT MY LIFESTYLE TO CHANGE IT’S NOT REAL OR IT’S UNNECESSARY OR SOMETHING” Put under a… -
Re: With 7 weeks to go before Scotland votes the latest three polls find voters opposed to another IndyR
Harris suffered from a one-track mind, though. For example in helping prevent use of a small (by BC standards) number of aircraft by Coastal Command, which could have had a material impact on the Battle of the Atlantic quite a lot earlier. -
Re: US YouGov poll finds 36% of Americans saying the Royal Family is racist – just 19% say they aren’t –
The point is that English identity, like American, is a historical amalgam, as is evident from study of the language before you even get on to culture. It has celtic, germanic, norse and Norman elements, and in more recent times Huguenot, Dutch, Jewish, Caribbean and South Asian. Much more of a melting pot than most;… -
Re: Oh dear… ODA… – politicalbetting.com
With the axing of 'Mash Show' should there not be an attempt to reveal who at the BBC authorised its 4 series? One could justify giving an overtly biased show with terrible ratings 2 series but 4? Prior to a vote on foreign aid should it not be revealed how many MPs have a personal self-interest in the foreign aid budget… -
Re: Now the last SIX Scottish referendum polls have NO in the lead – politicalbetting.com
No it’s not. It’s adding more positive tests. Although it will be interpreted as positive cases, and this is the problem... -
Re: After the damaging spat with Salmond can Sturgeon lead the SNP to a Holyrood majority on May 4th? –
Missed this before. The new coal mine would comprise I think 0.3% of the UK's C02 emissions, and the Planning Permission terminates before 2050. -
Re: Punters now make it a 66% chance that Brian Rose will get less than 2% in the London Mayoral race –
Agree with most of that except the last phrase. We almost certainly would have fallen in line with Germany, France, Spain and Italy on the vaccine policy were we still in the EU. I accept we would have had the theoretical option to go our own way even within the EU, but in practical politics, I think that wiggle room was… -
Re: Is this Trump’s legacy – Republican voters significantly less likely to follow COVID guidelines than
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Re: As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election – pol
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1369687243846258688 -
Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
What's so brilliant about it is the understanding about how it will travel across The Pond. The Americans will take it literally, and find it very classy. The Brits will be able to admire it's eloquence whilst also understanding all the subtleties woven into it. Quite quite brilliant. -
Re: Given what everybody is talking about it we probably need a thread on this – politicalbetting.com
But what in particular? It was an odd conclusion. I'm genuinely interested in how you got there.