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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are
FTPA seems clear. There has to be confirmation confidence vote within 14 days in whatever rag tag and bob tail alternative government has been cobbled together: "If this motion is carried, there is a 14 calendar day period in which to form a new Government, confirmed in office by a resolution as follows: “That this House… -
Re: The most loopy idea yet from Team Truss? – politicalbetting.com
Instruct 3 valuers to come and value your property and you will likely get 3 wildly different answers. It strikes me that very little thought goes into it. Generally speaking I think there is a lot of reliance on getting purchasers to self-police the value, particularly by reviewing their building survey and negotiating… -
Re: What shall we read into this? – politicalbetting.com
I don't know who is advising Kemi – there have been rumours of a shake-up at CCHQ, whatever that amounts to – but I could do a better job at half the price. This smacks of Ranking John Major pointing out his old house in Brixton. It has gone beyond that. The issue now is not that we need to know Kemi better – we need to… -
Re: And so the Queen’s coffin arrives in Westminster – politicalbetting.com
I like Edwardian houses. Older houses either seem to be knocked together cottages with small rooms and low ceilings, or great soulless sepulchres. The rooms are human sized, well proportioned, and suited to modern living. They have manageable gardens. Most importantly they have proper construction such as damp courses, and… -
Re: Are Sunak riches going to be a negative for him? – politicalbetting.com
This reminds me of the quote given the other day by a GOP member of the House: “We always get the blame [...] Name one time that we’ve shut the government down and we haven’t got the blame.” The Conservative party has been demonised in the sense that they drew a pentagon on it and summoned a demon to burn down everything… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three paths to instability
Now we know what he has been doing whilst away from Parliament. He's been warging. Have we factored in a scanario where an embittered former denizen of Wester-minster brings down dragon-fire on the Houses of Parliament? (To be fair, pb.com has recently considered even more far-fetched scenarios with a stern stroking of the… -
Re: Can the LDs become the 3rd party once again? – politicalbetting.com
Protecting developers has been a side-effect of protecting asset prices. If you abandoned all mandatory "affordable housing" requirements but also made planning easier, especially for small or individual developers, then overall supply would go up and the problem of affordability would begin to take care of itself. At the… -
Re: The Ayrshire hotelier is running scared – politicalbetting.com
As we discussed recently, Germany has had higher immigration over the last three years, and has better infrastructure, housing, and productivity. Some of these have been the results of the post-Thatcherite consensus that carried through to New Labour, and that Starmer will need to partially break with at some point to… -
Re: Those betting that the Senate will vote to convict Trump should probably take heart from McConnell –
Not really, certainly NOT in American history. Because the President is NOT just head of government, but also head of state. Thus from 1789 through 2021, the wife of the President has the same (or very similar) social and cultural status as Prince Philip. When I say social do NOT mean upper-crust society of the hoity-toity… -
Re: For those with short memories… – politicalbetting.com
Thanks. I am okay. Have picked up but I am still very cautious about coming on here and generally avoid it completely later in the day as I find it too aggressive and abusive, especially when Leon has hit the bottle. It has been a tough time for so many of us, hasn't it? I was thinking about how crazy the world has been… -
Re: Fewer than a third think Farage will become PM within four years – politicalbetting.com
A thoughtful response as always, David. for which many thanks. I begin to suspect electoral volatility has been building for a while - it may have been accelerated and accentuated by more recent events but if you look at, for example, the emergence of what we once called "the Red Wall", Conservative vote shares in dozen of… -
Re: Bobby J’s choice of middle name isn’t very popular
Lancaster has been a hot house of Greens for a decade or more. Especially near the uni as this seat is I think. -
Re: Here today. Gone tomorrow. – politicalbetting.com
I almost wonder whether part of the reason for just how hysterical Boris's reaction has been, including quitting beforehand, has been purely to help the narrative for when the report eventually got voted on (as it had to be, whether he quit or not). He has more people than 7 who like him in the Commons, and probably some… -
Re: America elected the dotard Donald Trump, you’ll never guess what happened next –politicalbetting.com
Another long night in A&E - this time with acute chest pain when breathing, probably pleural. But may be an embolism. Unlike in genteel Hampstead, there has been an insane woman shouting and swearing for the last 2 hours about some domestic dispute to two extraordinarily patient policemen. She's breached a restraining… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brex
Possibly because we never benefitted from the economies of scale. Our manufacturing sector has been butchered and only German industry is reaping the economies of scale. Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 123/1 LD leadership bet
Yes, the uncertainty has been lethal. Who can invest or purchase big stuff with that hanging over us? It is now, in part, resolved. There are other signs that life IS returning. eg House Prices https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/12603-uk-house-prices-in-fastest-increase-in-13-years-more-gains-seen-in-2020… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not neo-fascism, it’s the classic variety
I think the thing that has been missing from David's header and most of the comments to it is that Trump is not operating in a vacuum as the sole source of political power in the country. The USA is not Italy or Germany in the 30s. Yes, there is a dysfunctional Congress, but its dysfunction arises from the fact that each… -
Re: The ConHome poll has moved the market – politicalbetting.com
The problem is, as I think has been remarked on here, that Trump seems robust, whereas Biden seemed frailer. Biden doddered somewhat but Trump, while demented, is demented with confidence. Plus, there's enough coherence in his ramblings that they can resonate with people. The cat and dog eating, which has become a meme, is… -
Re: Could Biden be triumphant in the MidTerms? – politicalbetting.com
Wage-driven inflation would be a good thing and is something I've been calling for. The lack of wage-driven inflation has led money going to asset-driven inflation in the past (see: House Prices) instead and has been replaced with commodity-driven inflation. A fall in commodity prices, a fall in asset-prices and a rise in… -
Re: The big dividing line in British politics – retirees who gave Johnson his majority – politicalbettin
Incidentally my son has been very active in school debating for a couple of years now and indeed has his house cup competition today. It is a very common motion that the voting of those over 75 should either be restricted or down weighted in some way so that the young are encouraged to take part and the policy mix is…