The problem for the LDs is that a majority of their voters might actually back Reform over Labour in a forced choice, whereas their activists certainly wouldn't. (View Post)

The methodology of all of these studies has the flaw that it assumes an inflexion point, and if the data fail to show one, it gets explained away by creating an implausible counterfactual. Meanwhile … (View Post)

A Sultana that will live in infamy. (View Post)

They’re dying on the vine. (View Post)

Labour's descent in the polling averages is almost a straight line. https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1994330150163362207 (View Post)