Labour are odds on in South West Hertfordshire. Different boundaries to before, but I'm not sure that matters too much. The Lib Dems are very strong locally in that area and at 50-1, I think the… (View Post)

Isn't a big part of it that it's just a function of the underlying polling? If Labour are 25 points ahead of the Tories, it's likely going to be a huge Labour landslide. The real value… (View Post)

Really good thread from Dan Neidle: https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1796455532771127650 Dan Neidle @DanNeidle This is all an uncomfortable result from my personal political perspective: I'm in fa… (View Post)

You think we should be fighting in Ukraine? To be honest, I did think at the start that perhaps we should simply because we’ll probably end up fighting the Russians at some point anyway. (View Post)

https://x.com/Samfr/status/1796636336910123320 Sam Freedman @Samfr We're getting the first YouGov MRP on Tuesday, which I suspect will be a fair bit friendlier to the Tories, albeit still very b… (View Post)