There is undoubtedly a strong anti-incumbency mood nearly everywhere. Austria - the OVP-Green coalition has seen its share of the vote collapse from 51% at the last election to 27% now. Norway - the … (View Post)

Over 80% counted in New Zealand. National have slipped back to just under 40% and 50 seats, Labour on 26.5% and 34 seats. Greens have 13, ACT 12, NZ First 8 and Maori 4 so that gives National-ACT 62 … (View Post)

To be fair, I'd describe Luxon's National as more "centre right" - he's a little to the right of John Key who was very much in the Cameron mould (and also won after a long pe… (View Post)

Worth noting apart from New Zealand we have a parliamentary election in Poland on Sunday. As in NZ, the incumbent Government is facing a tough election but whereas defeat looks certain for Labour in … (View Post)

Evening all :) On topic - given its Redfield & Wilton with their curious sub samples, probably not. It's still a 12.5% swing to Labour and a 6% swing to the LDs. Let's see if this is mo… (View Post)