The 28 seats where the Reform vote share is projected to be 20% or higher currently split Con 16 Lab 12. Under the YouGov MRP that changes to Lab 22 Con 6. They are in just five geographic areas - 12… (View Post)

Well, that's reasonable and we'll see how that goes. I think Hall will probably get to 30% but not much further. As for the PCCs and Councils, more research is required. Basildon was decent… (View Post)

Natalie Campbell applied to be the Conservative candidate but was unsuccessful and obviously any membership of the party would have ceased. Her manifesto reads quite well and certainly better than an… (View Post)

Reform did okay in the by elections at Wellingborough and Kingswood and will fulfil the NOTA option in a number of seats where the LDs and Greens are absent. (View Post)

Clearly a hugely lopsided result would give the proponents of electoral reform some real ammunition. If the Conservatives end up second in votes and third in seats or Reform ends up third in votes an… (View Post)