That's exactly what happened in 1997. The vote share was down on 1992 yet the LDs gained 28 seats (if memory serves), all from the Conservatives. If the Conservative vote collapses by half and t… (View Post)

Afternoon all :) Back from a pleasant lunch to MRP chaos - why am I not surprised? This election is going to be a real test of MRP methodologies - to be fair, we are still more than two weeks out for… (View Post)

I'm not 100% sure what Farage "stands for" if I'm being honest. He seems an unreconstructed Thatcherite in his desire for lower taxes but the Reform manifesto, to this observer, b… (View Post)

Well, of course and you could argue the National Government had a huge majority over Labour in 1931 yet within 14 years and one World War, it was Labour who won the landslide. The wheel turns - the p… (View Post)

Afternoon all :) The R&W data tables tell a different story to YouGov. They have 10% Don't Knows and 7% Won't Votes. The turnout looks to be mid-60s so not too much different to 2019. T… (View Post)