Opinium generally don't poll the Conservatives below 25% - there's one poll from October 2022 which had a Conservative share of 23% but oddly enought their polling is quite consistent as @G… (View Post)

It will be interesting to see whether Tice and Farage even try to square the circle (why should they, no one else will) of greater spending vs lower taxes. MY suspicion is they are small-state Thatch… (View Post)

I raised this last evening and it's still troubling me today. Duke Ellington once opined "It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing". Regional polls show the swing fro… (View Post)

Another country due to vote this year is Austria. Austrian politics has been fascinating with some parallels to the UK. For Boris Johnson read Sebastian Kurz who led the People's Party (OVP) in … (View Post)

Just to wrap up the Portuguese election. The overseas votes results are in - two seats in Europe went 1 for the Socialists (-1) and 1 for CHEGA (+1). CHEGA won the vote in Europe with 18.2%, the Soci… (View Post)