Yes. It doesn’t follow that Biden losing PA means he loses the election. But at this stage all the models would shift to making Trump the probable winner. (View Post)

I’ve been asking to be matched on one of the Betfair POTUS markets to hopefully win £1k. The price is moving away from me so I may not get fully matched. So far I’ve been matched to win “£538”. Spook… (View Post)

But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already… (View Post)

A big uncertainty for me is the apparently huge amount of additional Registered Voters this election. How many are there? What % increase on last time? How come? How do they split on party lines? Is … (View Post)

I've been trying to work out what the best value bet is at the moment. My only position is a £10 buy of Biden ECVs at 285 which I'm very happy with. Wish I'd risked a bigger stake. I t… (View Post)