I think 1997 was the exception because it was the only election that government scandals rather than the economy player a much bigger role. 1964 would also have probably been an exception if they had… (View Post)

I did, I also used the best PM indicators, when you cant trust the headline number you have to look for other signs to either confirm or deny them. I think it was Matt Singh or someone in the FT who … (View Post)

Well if the Conservatives can't take Bolsover and Labour can't take Hastings then it should be back to square one, another election. (View Post)

So how is the canvassing going? Does it look like 2017 again? If you want to answer, answer truthfully, we try to make good bets not influence the election results, the betting markets are offering g… (View Post)

The purpose of MRP is not to accurately predict every seat, but to accurately predict the total number of seats like the Exit Poll. With 632 seats it's reliable but with 50 states it's not, the sampl… (View Post)