NYtimes missed a trick massively by not doing the needle for other states. (View Post)

Maybe I misunderstood... but I thought the expectation was that Trump would do well on the night, but then might be overtaken by Biden with votes counted later... so far it seems to be opposite? (View Post)

Looks reassuringly difficult. Last time he outperformed in mid-West and that was sufficient. Now he needs to beat his polls in quite different states. I'm still scared though. (View Post)

If you like 538's model... then the states with the biggest discrepancy between the odds and 538's predictions are: FL, PA and OH (I think - some states I didn't check, someone better … (View Post)

Is 1/18th really that crazy? I don't really know how you'd calculate it - but it's a market where he always has the option to partially cash out right up until the day. It's also … (View Post)