Looks reassuringly difficult. Last time he outperformed in mid-West and that was sufficient. Now he needs to beat his polls in quite different states. I'm still scared though. (View Post)

If you like 538's model... then the states with the biggest discrepancy between the odds and 538's predictions are: FL, PA and OH (I think - some states I didn't check, someone better … (View Post)

Is 1/18th really that crazy? I don't really know how you'd calculate it - but it's a market where he always has the option to partially cash out right up until the day. It's also … (View Post)

Yep - I think it's prediction time. I'm going for Biden landslide - realignment in the Sunbelt. Democrats to sweep House, Senate and Presidency. Click the map to create your own at 270toWin… (View Post)

The system has a capacity it can handle and a capacity it cannot. If there was 1 covid case in the UK, I suspect even Dido Harding could manage to trace all of those contacts in 24 hours and get enou… (View Post)