If we assume 9 days between case by specimen date & hospital admission.... then over past month around 5% of UK cases have resulted in a UK hospitalization. Adjusting that forwards based on curre… (View Post)

Ah okay we're in agreement then. We could obviously have done better on the first wave in many ways - but the mistakes on the second wave were far more egregious, unforced and avoidable. It's remarka… (View Post)

Deaths in the UK peaked on 19th Jan. If we'd just locked down in September (2 months earlier as advised) and changed nothing else... still made all those other mistakes.... those 'deaths' would shift… (View Post)

My initial thought is Cummings has successfully focused discussion on the first lockdown/drama in March. But arguably - the really unforgiveable decisions are the ones that led to the second wave whi… (View Post)

Presumably if he talks 2nd wave -> we will hear some home truths about Sunak wanting to open up the economy way too early? (View Post)