On the other hand, that massive capital expenditure hasn't done Japan much good. (View Post)

I'm not claiming betting markets are perfect. I'm disputing the claim that something being the favorite means they always win. The crowd is not expressing certainty, but a measure of probab… (View Post)

Also, would Carney have won without Trump's actions? It seems Carney benefited (as almost any Liberal leader in Canada would have done) from the Conservatives being seen as too close to a sudden… (View Post)

Well, this should be easy enough to analyse. Let's take a random selection of -say- 10,000 Betfair markets, and put them into probability buckets, and see how accurate they are. I'm going t… (View Post)

That's not necessarily true: Betting markets are indicators of probability. If a runner is available at evens, then you should expect them to win approximately half the time. (View Post)