Also, would Carney have won without Trump's actions? It seems Carney benefited (as almost any Liberal leader in Canada would have done) from the Conservatives being seen as too close to a sudden… (View Post)

Well, this should be easy enough to analyse. Let's take a random selection of -say- 10,000 Betfair markets, and put them into probability buckets, and see how accurate they are. I'm going t… (View Post)

That's not necessarily true: Betting markets are indicators of probability. If a runner is available at evens, then you should expect them to win approximately half the time. (View Post)

I must admit to getting a teeny weeny bit optimistic, for the first time in a long while. (View Post)

Louise Mensch was not Snowflake. I forget what name she posted under. (View Post)