Which is kind of crazy when you think about it that means a single ship carries the equivalent to the baddest day and a half's oil usage for the UK. (View Post)

While that's true, it didn't really help them much in 2015. People assumed that popular local MPs (like Ed Davey) would be able to hold on despite the LibDem vote dropping two-thirds, and i… (View Post)

There are two factors at work: (1) How concentrated is your vote? The regional parties clearly have very concentrated votes, and -in recent times- the same has been true of the LibDems. They've … (View Post)

I'm just playing with the YouGov numbers: if they get 16%, then given they get close to zero in half the country, they'll be getting a decent number of seats mathematically. (View Post)

The YouGov vote shares are a nightmare for bettors, because hundreds of seats are going to be won on very low vote shares, and by very small margins. About the only thing you can say with certainty i… (View Post)