I get the general principles of the Bayesian thing, priors etc, that is Silvers big driver too, but on here everyone hits HYFUD with the dice analogy and I just think that's kind of the wrong metapho… (View Post)

I do struggle a bit with the 'probablistic' thing when it comes to Presidential elections. Its not like rolling a over and over again because its one roll every four years and the dice is a radically… (View Post)

Nate Silver thinks their methodology is to look at the other polls and switch 6 to Trump (View Post)

breaking cover to say I think they are invaluable (View Post)

Not a big Dire Straits fan but this is how they did Presidential impeachment when they were allowed to have an accompanying soundtrack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuLZEMofG7o (View Post)