Continue to be very encouraged by the return of the Liberal Democrats. They will be very valuable indeed if they can dig into those Southern gains and get as hard to shift as they traditionally were … (View Post)

She won't care a jot. It has clearly become vastly more efficient. Lib Dems gaming our crap voting system very well. (View Post)

He's not, he's describing areas of uncertainty. Certainty is a very big thing in science and, I'm sure, in psephology. He's not going to make firm predictions unless very sure, and the reasons given … (View Post)

Curtice Speaks! Seat forecast is a product of national vote shares and their geographic distribution Tory support falling much more heavily in Tory held seats Much of this damage being caused by Refo… (View Post)

Agree. And the Reform projection could be especially variable. I suspect that it principally relies on wins in unpredictable three way marginals. (View Post)