Looking at Reform’s target seats it’s a real mixed bag. You have to say there’s some on the list that in numerical terms alone look like low hanging fruit but given the seat demographics are probably… (View Post)

On point 3, if Reform are smart the way they will play this in the coming weeks is “we are in a battle of ideas with the Greens.” It is not “stolen election bla bla sectarian voting.” Initial indicat… (View Post)

Any plausible chance of some Lab to Green defections on the horizon? Also there’s got to be a less than zero chance of a Zarah Sultana flounce from YP to Green? (View Post)

The only consolation for Labour is hoping that this is a bit like the LD surge after the Iraq war - a limited effect (at least in 2005) that lost them lots of by elections in urban seats but didn’t t… (View Post)

It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the … (View Post)