This feels more likely to me, right now, than a big Labour recovery. In fact if you were forcing me to guess the next government right now, I’d say it would be likely minority Labour with support fro… (View Post)

As always, wait and see with a poll with that kind of movement. Could be an outlier, could be people pulling back a bit from Farage/suffering from Reform + Flag etc fatigue. Simply need to wait for m… (View Post)

As I’ve mentioned before, far too much effort for Trump to challenge the 22nd Amendment and try to run again. Why bother when you can just run with a proxy candidate (probably one of the Trump clan) … (View Post)

Yes, SKS isn’t giving off the vibes of someone long for Number 10, right now. I suspect they’ll go together, and 2027 feels about right to me. It is possible Reeves might exit a little earlier, if St… (View Post)

I think it is plausible that Reform might have pushed the envelope a bit too far with the ILR stuff. I think they can easily build a coalition of people who are very concerned about immigration and w… (View Post)