Yes, agreed. The key thing is where those votes are distributed, and I’m not sure models like Baxter are going to really pick up on that. High teens-low 20s, I’d say they must be on for about 20-50 s… (View Post)

The Tory Party doesn’t even operate as a cohesive entity any more. It is just a gaggle of desperate, flailing souls, political failures lashing out, and a small minority of relatively decent folk who… (View Post)

A shame about Raducanu. She gets a lot of flak which I think is really undeserved. I don’t blame her for making hay when the opportunities came through to her. I do think she has also been unlucky wi… (View Post)

I could see Reform winning Clacton, Ashfield and at a push Boston and Skegness. Once you get to there though, it becomes all about where their vote is spread and how it affects the LAB/CON vote in ea… (View Post)

Migration is the biggest issue that feeds Reform, but it’s not the only one. But the reason it does so is very clear to me. This election campaign is a great example. Mainstream politicians gravely i… (View Post)