The polls have definitely nudged slightly in favour of the GOP, but I am not particularly convinced by them this cycle, to be completely honest with you. Indeed given the number of polling misses on … (View Post)

I don’t find the “they’re both terrible and they’ll inevitably crash and burn” analysis particularly interesting, to be honest. From here out I would heartily agree they are both flawed candidates wh… (View Post)

On the US, it is notable to me that there has been a glut of pro-R or R-affiliated pollsters doing swing state polls in the last period. It feels to me like this Harris wobble is in part affected or … (View Post)

This is the issue. They didn’t get a mandate for anything much. The strategy they had seemed to be to win the election, and they’d worry about the governing afterwards. I have said it a few times but… (View Post)

The Democrats are having a three-week-out wobble. I’m not quite convinced that is a bad thing for them and indeed I suspect some of the messaging from friendly media might even be an attempt to GOTV.… (View Post)