Right now, I think they’ll get about 100-130. I think Sunak will keep his seat. It will be enough to keep the Tories going, but the result is going to make it really hard for them to meaningfully reb… (View Post)

The problem I have is there are too many MRP entrants this year, and it’s for an election which is very, very weird in terms of the skew of victory for one party and the battle for seats amongst the … (View Post)

Some may scoff at the Ref 5 (which seats - I will take a look), but this one actually feels quite plausible to me right now. (View Post)

Yep. As others have said, fieldwork is far too long. I’m ignoring this one. (View Post)

im not tremendously convinced that the electorate are particularly worried about the size of the Labour majority. I think everyone expects them to get 4/5 years of having a go (and sod seat counts) a… (View Post)