Well, yes, that’s fair: though I’d love a national one (or, you know, someone being brave on Pennsylvania for instance). (View Post)

I have found Silver a bit unconvincing since 2016. He explained away the 2016 result as being that his model wasn’t wrong, it was just that it predicted Clinton had a circa 75% chance of winning and … (View Post)

One thing Im definitely not doing on election night this year is staying up late. If you’re following on UK time I find you’re getting incessant talking, lots of exit poll waffle, and often very conf… (View Post)

Harris to me feels value across the board. The two I’m less confident about are NV and AZ. AZ should be good for her with the abortion ballot, buts she’s polling the worst there out of the swing stat… (View Post)

I trust Selzer. I think the enthusiasm gap and the female vote are going to deliver this for Harris. She might not win Iowa, or even every swing state, but I think it’ll be enough. (View Post)