numbertwelve
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Re: Your regular reminder that the betting markets are frequently and spectacularly wrong
On the US, it is notable to me that there has been a glut of pro-R or R-affiliated pollsters doing swing state polls in the last period. It feels to me like this Harris wobble is in part affected or … (View Post)1 -
Re: The State of the Union, Week 7 – politicalbetting.com
This is the issue. They didn’t get a mandate for anything much. The strategy they had seemed to be to win the election, and they’d worry about the governing afterwards. I have said it a few times but… (View Post)3 -
Re: The State of the Union, Week 7 – politicalbetting.com
The Democrats are having a three-week-out wobble. I’m not quite convinced that is a bad thing for them and indeed I suspect some of the messaging from friendly media might even be an attempt to GOTV.… (View Post)1 -
Re: A potentially awkward start for the new Tory leader – politicalbetting.com
Surprised it’s taken so long TBH. If he’d been a UK Tory or an Australian PM he’d have been out 18 months ago. (View Post)2 -
Re: A potentially awkward start for the new Tory leader – politicalbetting.com
I think for a lot of countries, ours included, it’s essentially a collective shrug and a “if it isn’t broke don’t try to fix it” position. We’ve all got far more pressing issues. (View Post)1