It’s quite difficult to get an EC permutation where Nevada is the crucial state. The one I’ve got to work is where Harris takes AZ, WI and PA and Trump takes the others - NV is then the tipping point… (View Post)

The polls have definitely nudged slightly in favour of the GOP, but I am not particularly convinced by them this cycle, to be completely honest with you. Indeed given the number of polling misses on … (View Post)

I don’t find the “they’re both terrible and they’ll inevitably crash and burn” analysis particularly interesting, to be honest. From here out I would heartily agree they are both flawed candidates wh… (View Post)

On the US, it is notable to me that there has been a glut of pro-R or R-affiliated pollsters doing swing state polls in the last period. It feels to me like this Harris wobble is in part affected or … (View Post)

This is the issue. They didn’t get a mandate for anything much. The strategy they had seemed to be to win the election, and they’d worry about the governing afterwards. I have said it a few times but… (View Post)