Yes. It's the same reason why I think 538's assessment of Biden having a 90% chance was reasonable. His lead was big enough to withstand a fairly large polling error (unlike Clinton), which… (View Post)

Interesting to see if the Senate ends up 51-49 to the GOP. If it does then PR statehood may yet happen as Rubio is in favour of it, and with Biden president the Dems can win a 50-50 tie. (View Post)

Yes, and the GOP used to regularly win California until 1992. (View Post)

I think the point is that there was (and still is) too much uncertainty to be making a call at that point. Of course, Fox may end up being proven right anyway. (View Post)

If it is 52-48 I look forward to our Brexit-supporting friends declaring it a "clear majority", "overwhelming mandate" etc. (View Post)