Is that the Political Betting equivalent of "I do have a girlfriend but she lives in Canada"? (View Post)

The 44-46% is quite surprising (though I can see the logic). But the range 38%-43.99% is only 6pp and roughly MOE territory for the central point of 41% (which matches current poll averages, IIRC). (View Post)

He looks a lot less like Genial Harry Grout than usual. (View Post)

Behind which almost all of us can coalesce. (View Post)

That is precisely the difference between a broadcaster's vox pops (people prepared to talk to a journo on camera) v. a statistically sound polling methodology. It's not the polling that is going to b… (View Post)