This is precisely where there is an opportunity for the Tories to surprise on the downside (and for the LDs to scrape a respectable number of MPs from their current doldrums). However, it will requir… (View Post)

Thinking about the statement posited in the header - I think this is incorrect. We can learn less from a specific, focused campaign when all parties are putting in maximum effort (far beyond that whi… (View Post)

If a party has already soaked up 50%+ of the vote in a particular seat, you can argue that there's precious little left to swing. I am assuming that this really represents turnout differential, and t… (View Post)

"Illegitimate" isn't quite the right word it's more that it has "run out of voter-approved legislative programme". What's in the 2019 manifesto: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/electio… (View Post)

This, of course, isn't new rhetoric. This is just maintaining the line that Russia's "natural" sphere of influence extends to the lines established in 1945, and anything else is the West go… (View Post)