And they didn't have the weapons last year to degrade the Russian capability sufficiently. On the other hand, if they hadn't executed last summer's counter-offensive, this summer would… (View Post)

It's the small party "holding the balance of power" fallacy. The true believers are confident they will over perform, leading to NOM, and handing them the keys to the castle. (View Post)

Yes. The LDs are getting a bit more visibility, and Labour seem secure enough (and the election near enough) for Lab supporters in appropriate constituencies to start telling pollsters that they *wil… (View Post)

Is that the Political Betting equivalent of "I do have a girlfriend but she lives in Canada"? (View Post)

The 44-46% is quite surprising (though I can see the logic). But the range 38%-43.99% is only 6pp and roughly MOE territory for the central point of 41% (which matches current poll averages, IIRC). (View Post)