That sheering off to the LDs question: it depends to what extent the not-Tory vote is actually anti-Tory. Because I can well imagine the headline numbers being slightly lower for Labour and slightly … (View Post)

That's probably correct, but it sounds awfully like: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4125089#Comment_4125089 https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4032077#Comment… (View Post)

While I don't want to underestimate UKR casualties, I think that those multipliers are not going to be right. UKR is fighting in a completely different way from a traditional "attacker assa… (View Post)

One of the things which gives cause for optimism is the size of the immigration-positive vote. However, the problem for the Tories (and presumably the reason for their language and approach) is that … (View Post)

Tens of thousands were being sent back to EU countries, at the peak in the early part of the Blair administration (just after it had come in, and when asylum claims were at a peak). The number of asy… (View Post)