I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind. (View Post)

That was an unexpected conversation stopper. (View Post)

That sheering off to the LDs question: it depends to what extent the not-Tory vote is actually anti-Tory. Because I can well imagine the headline numbers being slightly lower for Labour and slightly … (View Post)

That's probably correct, but it sounds awfully like: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4125089#Comment_4125089 https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4032077#Comment… (View Post)

While I don't want to underestimate UKR casualties, I think that those multipliers are not going to be right. UKR is fighting in a completely different way from a traditional "attacker assa… (View Post)