FWIW I would bet against Trump at the current BF odds. But I wonder if those odds are primarily a reflection people thinking about 2016. Maybe people think that the incumbent usually wins if the econ… (View Post)

Sounds more or less right, although maybe the most likely result is a little more comfortable for Biden (flips Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin AND Florida and maybe Arizona, he could even afford to… (View Post)

Indeed. Biden picking up Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, and everything else as last time is a plausible route (View Post)

Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (bett… (View Post)

British fans of the British empire: 1. "The empire that I pathetically still identify with is coincidentally the best one in history. Basically benevolent, whereas all the other ones were terrib… (View Post)