2 more things to remember when comparing with 4 years ago: 1. This time 4 years ago Clinton was (in 538 national averages) polling 45%. Biden is now polling 51% - so he is polling 6 % better than Cli… (View Post)

IF I wanted to know yesterday's weather - and there are sometimes situations where you might want to know yesterday's weather - then yes I would definitely trust Starmer to give an accurate… (View Post)

Dan is, as usual, not even close to being right. The last French presidential election the polls were out by more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/macron-won-but-the-french-polls-were-way-off/ A… (View Post)

Does Trump getting coronavirus help him/Republicans? Probably: He gets sympathy/attacks on him seem unfair People rally round the head of state If he dies Pence wins on sympathy vote. If he recovers … (View Post)

When Sanders dropped out in the middle of April, and it became certain Biden would be the nominee, Biden was 4.7% ahead of Trump in the 538 national polling average. If you'd told me then that w… (View Post)