Last time I checked Silver's model said something like Trump 58% chance of winning with a note attached saying this is because the model is subtracting points from Harris's polling because the DNC re… (View Post)

What where are the usual defenders of Empire? Didn't they build railways? Didn't it bring benefits as well as harm? Nobody? As an aside the fun ended because Germany lost a war - the Great War it was… (View Post)

So let me get this straight, if we find out the Russians are paying people to spread misinformation on social media (for example) our reaction should be 'carry on, no problem, help yourselves - we've… (View Post)

Maybe but at least he explains what is going on in his model: tldr: - The model assumes a convention bounce that will fade. This means if Harris maintains her current polling lead she will soon be fa… (View Post)

Nate Silver on Harris leading the polls but Trump being favorite in their forecast (and the RFK effect): "(1) Harris is slightly underperforming the model’s benchmark for a convention bounce. Ha… (View Post)