Great caution is needed when viewing subsamples given the MOE involved. However, a big swing back to Labour in traditional redwall Labour seats is not to be ruled out. What we saw in those seats in 2… (View Post)

Opinium's data from two weeks ago rather contradicts this. It suggested a 10.5% swing to Labour in seats lost to the Tories in 2019 compared with a 4% swing across GB as a whole. However, in both cas… (View Post)

I rather disagree. Labour was leading under Corbyn - despite all the baggage he carried - as late as May 2019. (View Post)

Let us see what a deep recession does to the Tory vote.Perhaps worth pointing out too that one effect of the 2015 electoral earhquake in Scotland has been to knock circa 2% off Labour's GB vote share… (View Post)

Not really. Few on here were predicting a few months ago that a Labour vote share as high as 38% would become pretty normal as early as the Summer recess. (View Post)