There is actually pretty strong evidence of a First Term incumbency boost for new MPs.Stretching back to 1959, quite a few Tory gains from that year were held in 1964, and two - Briereley Hill and Lo… (View Post)

/blockquote> I believe statistically this is true which bodes well for the Conservatives in 2024. However, I suspect the aftermath of the pandemic and whether we all feel cheered or downcast over … (View Post)

I doubt it makes much difference . For most people it has long ceased to be a salient issue. (View Post)

11 months to be precise! The UK left on 31st Jan 2020. (View Post)

A binding second Independence Referendum is Ultra Vires re- Holyrood - and campaign pledges made by parties seeking election to it are neither here nor there. (View Post)