Yes I think thats true, one set of odds must be wrong. If there’s a 40% chance of NOM & 13% chance of Lab Maj, Sir Keir should have a better than 21% of being next PM (assuming Boris fights the n… (View Post)

Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nai… (View Post)

Actually the polls were quite close pre Hartlepool, not a million miles from how they look now. A few leads of 1,2 & 4 with the odd double digiter. It was mentioned in here as a reason to lay the… (View Post)

Sir Keir may well be fav, but that is quite misleading - the average person might assume that means he is likely to be next PM, whereas the market is saying there is 79% chance of it being someone el… (View Post)

The art of betting is to seperate the wheat from the chaff and make estimates - no one who knows anything about it would claim thta things are entirely predictable, but it is interesting, and I think… (View Post)