Probability summing would be correct over independent "events". But that is not so across constituencies in an election. Moreover the MRP methodology itself implies correlation between cons… (View Post)

Oh dear, it's a signal of distress isn't it? (View Post)

Persuading the "floating voter" to vote for your party is not the game now, and probably never really has been. It is more about getting people who are inherently inclined towards your part… (View Post)

The truly dishonest politicians are those who declare that honesty is the best policy (View Post)

Sentence first—verdict afterwards seems to be the rule (View Post)