edmundintokyo

It *probably* won't be the end of the world if the other guy wins. But the world has enough nuclear weapons to blow ourselves up multiple times over and the fact that this hasn't happened yet comes d… (View Post)

More on the Selzer poll: https://bsky.app/profile/proptermalone.bsky.social/post/3la22fb4tpc2y So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your assum… (View Post)

It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections, it doesn't assume the loser will be gracious. What it's not set up for is the incumbent presiden… (View Post)

Here's the interview with Ann Selzer I mentioned that I posted on the previous thread. She talks about her method early on then the rest is talking about the prospects for GOP primaries that have alr… (View Post)

OK so there are 4 possibilities: 1) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is right, Iowa isn't in play so don't commit resources 2) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is wrong, go with your priors which say Iow… (View Post)