Great stuff. Way back when we had a bunch of arguments here about Proportional Loss vs UNS. The thought was that if you flip 10% of GOP supporters to Dem, that will be a greater proportion of the tot… (View Post)

Is there a single example anywhere of "focused protection" working in practice? ie has any country or area anywhere managed to have high levels of contagion everywhere, and yet keep it away… (View Post)

TBF the betting markets assure me that there's a non-trivial chance he'll somehow end up running against Hillary Clinton again. (View Post)

I think clearly the second one: He's being driven by stuff he sees on right-wing TV, rather than his own rational political self-interest. This should also inform our take on his attack on posta… (View Post)

Just to say I really appreciate having these thorough, well-reasoned, data-based posts that @MrEd is doing against the consensus (although in this case I think I agree with the consensus). (View Post)